Winter Outlook, Climate Resistance Communities, and Mass Bird Deaths

❄️ NOAA Releases Winter Outlook

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued its winter outlook on October 17. Forecasters are still predicting La Nina to develop later this fall and influence weather conditions across the country. Wetter-than-average conditions are predicted for the entire northern tier of the continental U.S., especially in the Great Lakes and Pacific Northwest, along with northern and western Alaska. Drier-than-average conditions are expected from the Four Corners region to the southeast and mid-Atlantic states. The northern plains and Pacific Northwest area is most likely to see below normal temperatures this winter. Above normal temperatures are predicted across much of the southern and eastern U.S.. They also note that NOAA has consolidated some of its winter weather products in hopes of improving messaging and providing better decision support services.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

🏠 Climate Resistant Community in Florida

Babcock Ranch, a town on Florida’s west coast near Fort Myers, was built to withstand hurricanes and has already passed two hurricane tests. All structures within Babcock Ranch are built to withstand more than 150mph hurricane-force winds. The town also has its own 150-megawatt solar farm and underground transmission system to keep electricity flowing. Roughly 90% of the property is preserved wetland that helps collect excess water and rarely floods. The community hosted around 2,000 evacuees from Hurricane Milton. They never lost power, and only had some downed trees and traffic lights as damage. In 2022, Category 4 Hurricane Ian passed over Babcock Ranch. Surrounding communities saw roughly $115 billion in both insured and uninsured losses, but the town sustained little damage. Communities built with sustainability and climate in mind such as Babcock Ranch could be key in mitigating extreme weather risks, becoming more resilient, and bringing back affordable insurance to Florida.

Austyn Gaffney, The New York Times

🐦 Mass Bird Deaths Linked to Climate Crisis

An ongoing outbreak of botulism has killed more than 94,000 birds at Tule Lake in northern California. The outbreak and catastrophic die-off are tied to global problems including declining wetlands, increasing demand for limited water resources, hydrological diversions, and a warming climate. The pestilence is caused by a toxin produced by a specific type of bacteria that thrives in the area’s warm, stagnant, low water levels, which are becoming more common as human-made dams and irrigation canals have eliminated more than 90% of the areas wetlands. Historically, winter rains would fill the wetlands with water, but now the water supply comes almost entirely from irrigation canals. This summer, the water levels drastically declined again and avian influenza killed hundreds of birds, then the botulism outbreak began. In response, advocacy groups delivered more than 5,000 acre-feet of water to the lake, which initially slowed the outbreak. By late August, and with no more water being delivered, more than 1,000 birds were dying every day.

Douglas Main, The Guardian